The agricultural industry
is at the crossroads in terms of workforce capacity.
Agriculture has always been a complex business. In the 21st Century, however, the degree of complexity has intensified. Not only do farmers
and their advisers
need to contend with the usual production issues,
they also need to be increasingly self‐reliant in the marketing of their products, ensuring market
quality and supply.
There has always been a need to deal with climate
variability but predictions indicate that this variability will increase and there is increased
expectation for farmers
to manage the risk of drought. The compliance aspects
of the workplace continue to increase as occupational health and safety provisions apply together
with, inter alia, pesticide management, flock care and stewardship of GM crops. At the same time agriculture manages over 60% of the Australian landscape and thus assumes
the responsibility for native vegetation, landscape sustainability, biodiversity and the like. Technologies such as GPS, precision
agriculture and remote sensing are now having impact
and there is increasing expectation on agriculture to address
carbon emissions and play its part in the carbon economy.
Farmers need increased personal
capacity but thus will need greater
reliance on expert
advice from outside the farm. Research and development will continue
to be needed to develop
systems and technologies that allow productivity gains to maintain
farm profitability and address the needs and opportunities in food security nationally and globally. The industry, from the farm, the service
and post‐farm gate sectors
and in R&D, requires
a workforce which is highly educated,
highly skilled and with an image and reputation that is attractive to the best and brightest. As markets
become more discriminatory in respect
of quality and production practices, accreditation will become
increasingly important and the industry will need to have robust mechanisms in place to assure those markets.
Benchmarking education in agriculture
On any analysis, the educational standards of the agricultural industry
do not stand up well to scrutiny (Figure
1). Over the past quarter of a century the proportion of the Australian community with tertiary qualifications has increased from just below 10% of the workforce
to more than 25%.
In contrast, in the agricultural sector,
only 4% were degree holders
in 1984 and in 2009 that proportion has risen to only around
7%. The gap is widening,
yet food production would seem to be an essential service industry where standards
should be unquestionably high.
Figure 1 Relative
proportions of the agricultural sector and the Australian community with tertiary qualifications, 1994‐2009 (Source:
Australian Bureau of Statistics)
The comparisons
are also stark
if the relative
proportions of the workforce
without post‐school qualifications are considered (Figure 2). Whereas the Australian community at large has reduced
the proportion
from 54% in 1984 to around 33% in 2009, the agricultural industry has achieved a reduction from 73% to only 58% in the same time – that gap also continues to widen.
Figure 2 Relative
proportions of the agricultural sector and the Australian community with no post‐school qualifications, 1984‐2009 (Source:
Australian Bureau of Statistics)
It is clear from these statistics that education of its workforce has not been a high priority for the agricultural industry.
Yet this became a concern
for the Heads of Agriculture schools
within universities where declining
enrolments were being experienced whilst
at the same time industry employers were complaining about the lack of graduates. In order
to address this issue in particular, the Australian Council
of Deans of Agriculture was formed in 2007. Further investigation by the ACDA revealed
the government policy
position at the time was that graduate
supply was plentiful but that job prospects were poor. This conflicted with the experience of the ACDA members
who embarked on a data gathering
exercise to clarify
the conflict. In this process
it was discovered that
graduate numbers
used by government included all environmental science and management graduates and that the job market
projections were based
on advertisements placed only in selected metropolitan newspapers.
Graduate supply in agriculture
Data were collected from all universities with undergraduate coursesin agriculture and in related areas. Such data were collected
from 2001 until the present
to establish trend lines. Figure 3 shows the graduate completions in agriculture courses
over time and Figure 4 shows the data for agriculture and related
courses for the same period.
Where available, comparisons are made with the 1980s using data derived from the “McColl
Report” (McColl
et al., 1991). Completions in the latter case were estimated in proportion to enrolments in the various levels of qualifications and so there are likely to be small errors in the absolute numbers used, although comparisons are not likely to be significantly compromised.
In the late 1980s there was a marked increase
in the number of graduates
with agriculture degrees, due largely
to the conversion from diploma
qualifications to degrees in the Colleges
of Advanced Education (CAE) sector.
Diploma qualifications have largely
disappeared from tertiary
education institutions since then. There was also a small component
of 2‐year associate
degrees at that time and they have also become virtually extinct. Together
degrees and associate degrees
in agriculture delivered to industry around
800 graduates in the late 1980s. In the 21st Century, numbers had declined to around 500 in 2001 and that decline has continued
such that only 300 degree graduates in agriculture entered
the workforce at the end of 2010. There has been a 40% decline
in last 10 years.
Figure 3 Graduate
completions in 3 and 4 year agriculture courses from Australian universities for the period 2001‐2009 inclusive and estimated
from McColl report
for years 1986‐1989 including
2 year associate
degrees
The agricultural
industry, however,
also receives value
from graduates in related
degrees such as horticulture, agribusiness, animal science and agricultural economics (Figure4). Whereas
the total graduation cohort
from agriculture and agricultural‐related degrees was around 1000 per year in the early part of the recent decade, the number has declined
to around 800 in 2010, ie a 20% decline.
However it should be noted that a sizeable
proportion of these are animal science graduates, only
some of whom (probably
fewer than half)are interested in livestock production with the remainder focused on wildlife
and companion animals.
The total available to the agricultural workforce then is closer to 700. Whereas animal science
degrees were not available for the period studied in the McColl Report,
there has been a proliferation of university courses in animal science
in more recent times to capitalise on high student
demand and, in many cases, to capitalise on the overflow of high quality students unsuccessful in their attempts to gain entry into Veterinary Science.
Figure 4 Graduate
completions in 3 and 4 year courses in agricultural and related
areas from Australian universities for the period 2001‐2009 inclusive.
The data in horticulture reveal
a substantial decline
as well. This sector during the 1980s was characterised by a relatively small cohort of degree graduates and a high associate
degree activity.
These consolidated into degrees and at the turn of the century
there were about 120 graduates
per year. This reflected the buoyant
position of viticulture at that time but there
has been a decline in the number
of providers related to the downturn
in the grape
industry. These numbers
also include graduates in the amenity
horticulture field as well as the very few in production horticulture. Thus the production horticulture industry will be dependant on agriculture graduates
for its professional workforce, as before, and so will have to compete with the rest of the agricultural industry for employees. Several
universities in recent
times have deleted
horticulture degrees
from their profile.
Figure 5 Graduate
completions in horticulture/viticulture from Australian universities for the period 2001‐2009 and the degree completions estimated from the McColl
report for the period 1986‐1989 including 2 year associate degrees
The discipline of agricultural economics did not have associate
degrees in the 1980s and so comparisons are straight forward. Completions back then were around 80 to 90 per year but in the
recent decade
is now around 50 per year except
for a peak in 2006. Only 3 universities provide graduates in this area with the University of Sydney
providing the vast majority. Student demand suggests that there will be no new providers in the market any time soon.
Figure 6 Graduate
degree completions in agricultural economics for the period
2001‐2009 inclusive together
with estimates of degree
completions from the McColl Report
for 1986‐1989
In agribusiness/agicultural commerce, the main qualification in the 1980s was the associate
degree being around 80% of the market.
Together with degrees, these awards provided
more than 200 graduates per year. In the evolution to degree‐only awards in the last two decades
there has been considerable fluctuation around
150 graduates per year declining
to fewer than 100 in 2010.
Figure 7 Graduate degree
completions in agribusiness for the period 2001‐2009 inclusive
together with estimates
of degree completions from the McColl
Report for 1986‐1989 including
2 year associate degrees
Workforce demand
The job market
in agriculture is based on the monitoring of job advertisements in state rural and metropolitan newspapers and on the internet over a four year period, 2007‐2010, presented quarterly. The detailed
methodology has been provided
in an earlier paper on this topic (Pratley
and Hay, 2010). It is recognised that there is the likelihood of an advertisement being placed both in print and on the web and subsampling suggests
that this is of the order
of 20% for agribusiness and
conclusions have been adjusted
accordingly. It is also recognised that there is the potential for “churn” where one advertisement is generated by the filling
of another vacancy
but this is balanced by jobs in local media,
by word of mouth and direct targeting of employees, none of which is considered here. There is thus no adjustment for “churn”.
Data are provided
for agribusiness and production for the four years
of study (Figure
8). Total job numbers are consistently in aggregate around 4000,
or 3600 per quarter after adjustment for advertising overlap
in agribusiness. Despite
the drought, which was very severe in 2008 and 2009, the number of jobs was not affected
to a large extent although
a rise is evident towards
the end of 2010 as confidence returned
with the breaking
of the drought
in eastern Australia.
Figure 8 Number of job advertisements per quarter in agribusiness and in agricultural production for the period 2007‐2010 inclusive.
For 2009 and 2010, production advertisements have been categorised into management and non‐ management (Figure 9) to enable a better understanding of the required workforce. In the production sector, there was a consistent demand for some 2000 non‐management employees per quarter
and at least 300 managers per quarter. Also evident
in the data is the differing
role played by the internet in advertising jobs. In agribusiness the ratio
of paper to internet
advertising is around 5:4 whereas for on‐farm management roles the ratio is 3:1 and for non‐management jobs it is more than 10:1.
(a)
(b)
(c)
Figure 9 Influence of the internet in job advertisements by quarter
in (a) agribusiness in 2007‐ 2010, (b) management in production in 2009‐2010 and (c) production non‐management in 2009‐10
Figure 10 shows the categories of jobs per quarter for the agribusiness sector.
Particularly strong were the livestock and cropping categories but there were at least 100 advertisements per quarter for all categories.
Figure 10 Number of job advertisements per quarter in various
sectors of agribusiness for the period 2007‐2010 inclusive
The relative proportion of jobs advertised in the metropolitan press is particularly low when compared with those in rural
papers. The exceptions are in Tasmania and Western Australia. In the states of NSW, Victoria and Queensland in particular, metropolitan newspapers have very little influence on the job market in agriculture.
Figure 11 Relative
number of job advertisements in metropolitan and rural newspapers in each state for the period 2007‐2010 inclusive
Discussion
Regardless of the needs of the industry
the level of educational attainment in the industry is unacceptable in a community
which has education as a high priority.
It is clear that there
has been much complacency towards
the improvement of skills and knowledge of its workforce
at a time when the rest of the community
has embraced the opportunities and moved well ahead. It is not surprising therefore that the image of the industry
is not seen as progressive and the younger generations have not seen the opportunities for careers
in agriculture that are seen in other industries. The reality however
is that the greater expectations placed on producers and the associated services
requires a highly educated and skilled
workforce and there are opportunities for exciting and rewarding careers.
The evidence is provided that the industry
has a strong employment market.
The data presented in this paper show that there is a job market
of about 1600 per quarter
in agribusiness. If it is assumed
that 70% have a need or desire
for graduates to fill those positions then there is a demand for around
4500 graduates per year. To this should be added the 1200 or so production management positions annually. Whilst the percentages used could be debated,
what is clear is that the number is sizeable.
The universities are nowhere near satisfying the current market.
The data show that only around 300 agricultural graduates
per year are now produced. This number grows to over 700 per year when related courses
are considered. These numbers
assume that there is no leakage of these graduates out of agriculture – this leakage can be significant. At best therefore
the universities are producing only 700 or so graduates for a job market of more than 4000. Further, the universities would need to produce
about 2300 graduates just to maintain the current
(7‐8%) graduate level
of education
qualifications (Pratley
and Copeland 2008) and that is nowhere near being achieved.
Industry responds to this dilemma
in many ways – the workload
builds on existing
staff; staff are “stolen” from competitors but the expertise
base is not increased; and less qualified
people are employed thereby
reducing the quality
of service to clients
and for the business. Anecdotal evidence from industry is that qualified
people are leaving the industry due to the work demands being placed upon them,
thereby exacerbating the problem.
A consequence of the decline
in student numbers
is the inevitable decline in the number of providers. The McColl
Report in 1991 recommended that there be a consolidation of providers, on the pretext that the resultant providers would be more multidisciplinary and stronger
than many of the earlier era. Whilst the rationalisation has occurred and almost all are part of multi‐disciplinary organisations, the low student
numbers have not provided
the strength in many campuses that would have been expected. Thus providers of undergraduate agriculture courses have almost halved in number (Figure
12) fulfilling the recommendations of McColl
and colleagues. Of greatest
concern is the decline by about
two thirds in country
campuses offering
agriculture. Thus access by rural students to agriculture has become
highly limited yet it is rural‐based graduate
jobs which are the most difficult
for employers to fill. Every state capital
city except Brisbane currently
retains at least one campus
where undergraduate agriculture is offered.
Figure 12 University campuses offering
an undergraduate agriculture degree, 1989 and 2011
By any measure, the agricultural industry faces immense
challenges in capacity.
Prospective students and their mentors do not see agriculture as a potential career
path. Thus students
are not entering relevant university courses
in sufficient numbers
even to maintain
the current levels
of workforce education. The issue is not that there are no exciting
and rewarding careers
in agriculture – it is that the emerging workforce
generation does not perceive those opportunities in agriculture and is thus attracted to the more positive
images portrayed in other employment settings.
If the trend in student enrolments continues we can expect to have further
universities dispense with agriculture courses.
It is unlikely, once relinquished, that any institution would re‐establish such a course.
The industry as a whole seems reluctant
to embrace education
as an essential plank of its future sustainability and seems unwilling
to work together
to promote both a positive
image for the industry
and worthwhile careers
for prospective participants. The industry as a whole
seems to be
reluctant to put pressure on the political
system to lead the image repositioning and career promotion. There are now sufficient data available to have established that the capacity
challenge is real. The challenge
will intensify unless there is concerted effort for change.
Acknowledgements
The personnel at Rimfire
Resources are gratefully acknowledged for their contribution to the collation of all the advertisement data used in this paper.
Reference
McColl, JC, Robson, AD and Chudleigh, JW (1991)
Review of Agricultural and Related
Education. Volumes 1 and 2. Department of Employment, Education and Training
and Department of Primary Industries and Energy (AGPS, Canberra)
Pratley, J and Copeland, L (2008)Graduate completions in agriculture and related degrees
from Australian universities, 2001–2006. Farm Policy Journal
Vol. 5 No. 3, 1‐10
Pratley, J and Hay, M (2010) The job market in agriculture in Australia. Occasional Paper 10‐01, Australian Farm Institute, pp1‐14
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